Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 31.35% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.69%) and 2-1 (7.39%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (12.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lanus in this match.