Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 52.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.18%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (8.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.