Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Sep 26, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Medellin
1 - 1
Lanus

Garcia (61', 61')
Fory (28'), Fory (28'), Londono (37'), Londono (37'), Muniz (84'), Muniz (84')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Londono (39' og., 39' og.)
Acosta (45'), Acosta (45'), Pena Biafore (73'), Pena Biafore (73'), Moreno (90+4'), Moreno (90+4')

Lanus win 6-5 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Independiente Medellin and Lanus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

Last Game: Lanus 0-0 Medellin
Thursday, September 19 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Lanus

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Huracan 3-0 Lanus
Sunday, September 22 at 6.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.53%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (11.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Independiente Medellin	Draw	Lanus
36.48% ( 0.11)	29.06% ( 0.13)	34.46% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 44.67% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.94% (

-0.46)

62.06% (

0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.22% (

-0.34)

81.78% (

0.34)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.5% (

-0.16)

32.5% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.98% (

-0.18)

69.02% (

0.18)

Lanus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.17% (

-0.4)

33.82% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.51% (

-0.44)

70.49% (

0.44)

Score Analysis

Independiente Medellin 36.47%

Lanus 34.46%

Draw 29.06%

Independiente Medellin	Draw	Lanus
1-0 @ 12.35% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.7% Total : 36.47%	1-1 @ 13.39% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.99% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.6% Total : 29.06%	0-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.4% Total : 34.46%