Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Aug 22, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus - Nestor Diaz Perez

Lanus
3 - 1
LDU Quito

(Lanus win 5-2 on aggregate)

Bou (9', 9'), Izquierdoz (78', 78'), Acosta (89', 89')
Aquino (33'), Aquino (33'), Morgantini (73'), Morgantini (73')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Arce (37', 37')
Piovi (77'), Piovi (77'), Julio (81'), Julio (81'), Estupinan (90+3'), Estupinan (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Lanus and LDU Quito, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lanus

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Lanus 1-1 C. Cordoba
Saturday, August 17 at 7pm in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

LDU Quito

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: LDU Quito 1-2 Lanus
Thursday, August 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 51.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 22.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.

Result
Lanus	Draw	LDU Quito
51.62% ( 0.09)	25.5% ( 0.08)	22.88% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 48.13% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.53% (

-0.43)

54.47% (

0.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.17% (

-0.36)

75.83% (

0.36)

Lanus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.87% (

-0.14)

21.13% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.03% (

-0.21)

53.97% (

0.21)

LDU Quito Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.02% (

-0.4)

38.98% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.29% (

-0.38)

75.7% (

0.38)

Score Analysis

Lanus 51.61%

LDU Quito 22.88%

Draw 25.5%

Lanus	Draw	LDU Quito
1-0 @ 12.8% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2% 4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.29% Total : 51.61%	1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.5%	0-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.47% Total : 22.88%