Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 39.24%. A draw had a probability of 31.4% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 29.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.13%) and 1-2 (7.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.64%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 1-0 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.