Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 53.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 20.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.