Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 50.61%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 21.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.