Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 57.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 18.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.