Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 19, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus - Nestor Diaz Perez
Medellin

Lanus
0 - 0
Medellin

Luciatti (28')
Loaiza (43'), Loaiza (43'), Carrera (72'), Perlaza (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Muniz (40'), Muniz (40'), Perlaza (71'), Carrera (71'), Sandoval (79'), Sandoval (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Lanus and Independiente Medellin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lanus

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Lanus 1-1 Union
Friday, September 13 at 10.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Last Game: Medellin 4-0 Palestino
Thursday, August 22 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 54.72%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 21.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (6.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.

Result
LanusDrawIndependiente Medellin
54.72% (-0.138 -0.14)24.1% (0.022000000000002 0.02)21.17% (0.122 0.12)
Both teams to score 50.09% (0.109 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.22% (0.059000000000005 0.06)50.78% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.32% (0.051000000000002 0.05)72.67% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Lanus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.55% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)18.45% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.37% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)49.63% (0.055 0.05)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.41% (0.157 0.16)38.58% (-0.153 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.67% (0.149 0.15)75.33% (-0.14500000000001 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Lanus 54.72%
    Independiente Medellin 21.17%
    Draw 24.09%
LanusDrawIndependiente Medellin
1-0 @ 12.03% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 10.16% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.68% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 5.73% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.6% (0.008 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.42% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.31% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 54.72%
1-1 @ 11.45% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.12% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.61% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 24.09%
0-1 @ 6.78% (0.013 0.01)
1-2 @ 5.46% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.23% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.73% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.46% (0.012 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.03% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 21.17%

How you voted: Lanus vs Medellin

Lanus
100%
Draw
0.0%
Independiente Medellin
0.0%
13