Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Apr 26, 2024 at 3am UK

Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Medellin
2 - 1
Defensa

Muniz (1', 1'), Monsalve (22', 22')
Arias (8'), Carlos Arias Sanchez (9'), Manuel Orejuela (10'), Manuel Orejuela (10'), Moreno (72'), Moreno (72'), Monsalve (77'), Monsalve (77')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Palavecino (76', 76')
Lopez (7'), Lopez (8'), Herrera (62'), Herrera (62'), Burgos (72'), Burgos (72'), Bogarin (90+2'), Bogarin (90+2')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Independiente Medellin and Defensa y Justicia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

Last Game: Medellin 4-2 Cesar Vallejo
Thursday, April 11 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana

Defensa y Justicia

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 1-1 Defensa (3-2 pen.)
Saturday, April 20 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 42.49%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 28.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.58%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.23%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.

Result
Independiente Medellin	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
42.49% ( -0.03)	29.1% ( 0.15)	28.41% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 42.87% (

-0.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.55% (

-0.51)

63.45% (

0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.21% (

-0.37)

82.79% (

0.37)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.39% (

-0.27)

29.6% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.36% (

-0.33)

65.64% (

0.32)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.89% (

-0.38)

39.1% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.18% (

-0.36)

75.82% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Independiente Medellin 42.48%

Defensa y Justicia 28.41%

Draw 29.1%

Independiente Medellin	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 14.09% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.43% Total : 42.48%	1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.57% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.1%	0-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.5% Total : 28.41%