Medellin
Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 11, 2024 at 3am UK
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Medellin
4 - 2
Cesar Vallejo

Vasquez (12', 12', 23' pen., 23' pen.), Leon Muniz (48'), Muniz (48'), Garcia (79', 79')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Mena (63', 63'), Velez (76' pen., 76' pen.)
Guerrero (24'), Guerrero (25'), Salas (25'), Sandro Salas Suarez (26')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Independiente Medellin and Cesar Vallejo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

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Last Game: Always Ready 2-0 Medellin
Friday, April 5 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
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Cesar Vallejo

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Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 0-1 Defensa
Wednesday, April 3 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 50.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Cesar Vallejo had a probability of 24.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Cesar Vallejo win it was 0-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.

Result
Independiente MedellinDrawCesar Vallejo
50.57% (0.108 0.11)24.88% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)24.54% (-0.118 -0.12)
Both teams to score 51.73% (-0.145 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.38% (-0.135 -0.13)50.61% (0.134 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.47% (-0.119 -0.12)72.52% (0.11699999999999 0.12)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.98% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)20.01% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.78% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)52.21% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Cesar Vallejo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.68% (-0.175 -0.17)35.32% (0.173 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.92% (-0.182 -0.18)72.07% (0.17999999999999 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Independiente Medellin 50.57%
    Cesar Vallejo 24.54%
    Draw 24.88%
Independiente MedellinDrawCesar Vallejo
1-0 @ 11.37% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.52% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.15% (0.044 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.11%
3-0 @ 4.9% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.66% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.97% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.07% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 50.57%
1-1 @ 11.83%
0-0 @ 7.07% (0.038 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.95% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
3-3 @ 0.92% (-0.009 -0.01)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.36% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-2 @ 6.16% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.83% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.14% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.72% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.33% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 24.54%