Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 3, 2024 at 3am UK
Estadio Mansiche
Defensa y Justicia

Cesar Vallejo
0 - 1
Defensa


Olaya (78'), Olaya (78'), Barreto (90'), Barreto (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Zapata (59', 59')
Calderon (54'), Calderon (54'), Herrera (87'), Herrera (87')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Cesar Vallejo and Defensa y Justicia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cesar Vallejo

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Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 2-0 Huancayo
Friday, March 8 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Last Game: Defensa 1-0 Estudiantes
Friday, March 29 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesar Vallejo win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 31.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cesar Vallejo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.

Result
Cesar VallejoDrawDefensa y Justicia
41.02% (0.137 0.14)27.34% (-0.257 -0.26)31.64% (0.119 0.12)
Both teams to score 49.05% (0.799 0.8)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.65% (0.993 0.99)56.34% (-0.99299999999999 -0.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.63% (0.798 0.8)77.37% (-0.797 -0.8)
Cesar Vallejo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.99% (0.53999999999999 0.54)27% (-0.54 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.64% (0.703 0.7)62.36% (-0.704 -0.7)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.2% (0.601 0.6)32.8% (-0.602 -0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.64% (0.665 0.66)69.36% (-0.666 -0.67)
Score Analysis
    Cesar Vallejo 41.01%
    Defensa y Justicia 31.64%
    Draw 27.33%
Cesar VallejoDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 11.59% (-0.27 -0.27)
2-1 @ 8.46% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
2-0 @ 7.59% (-0.057 -0.06)
3-1 @ 3.69% (0.089 0.09)
3-0 @ 3.31% (0.025 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.06% (0.082 0.08)
4-1 @ 1.21% (0.047 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.08% (0.025 0.03)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 41.01%
1-1 @ 12.92% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 8.86% (-0.343 -0.34)
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.119 0.12)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 27.33%
0-1 @ 9.87% (-0.207 -0.21)
1-2 @ 7.21% (0.072 0.07)
0-2 @ 5.5% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.68% (0.07 0.07)
0-3 @ 2.05% (0.023 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.75% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 31.64%