Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 39.79%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.9%) and 2-1 (7.76%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.