Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 48.26%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 22.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.23%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.