Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 40.22%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 29.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 2-1 (7.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.39%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.