Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 35.45%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.08%) and 2-1 (6.67%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (13.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.