Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.7%) and 2-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (12.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.