Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 43.63%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Union had a probability of 26.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.