Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 41.72%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Union had a probability of 28.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.