Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 57.09%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.91%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.