Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palestino win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palestino win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Independiente Medellin win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.