Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 15, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna
Medellin

Palestino
2 - 2
Medellin

Roman (48', 48'), Benitez (50', 50')
Linares (64'), Linares (64')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Varela (41', 41', 90+3', 90+3')
Perlaza (84'), Perlaza (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Palestino and Independiente Medellin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Palestino

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Last Game: Cuiaba 1-2 Palestino
Thursday, July 25 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Independiente Medellin

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Last Game: Medellin 4-0 Always Ready
Thursday, May 30 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palestino win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palestino win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Independiente Medellin win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
PalestinoDrawIndependiente Medellin
39.04% (-0.207 -0.21)26.93% (0.086000000000002 0.09)34.02% (0.12 0.12)
Both teams to score 50.91% (-0.252 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.72% (-0.328 -0.33)54.27% (0.325 0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.33% (-0.275 -0.27)75.67% (0.27200000000001 0.27)
Palestino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.88% (-0.26899999999999 -0.27)27.12% (0.267 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.49% (-0.351 -0.35)62.51% (0.35 0.35)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.86% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)30.14% (0.087 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.71% (-0.105 -0.1)66.29% (0.10300000000001 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Palestino 39.04%
    Independiente Medellin 34.02%
    Draw 26.93%
PalestinoDrawIndependiente Medellin
1-0 @ 10.66% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.35% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.96% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.63% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.03% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.18% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.18% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-0 @ 0.99% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 39.04%
1-1 @ 12.79% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 8.17% (0.104 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.01% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 26.93%
0-1 @ 9.8% (0.101 0.1)
1-2 @ 7.67% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 5.88% (0.046 0.05)
1-3 @ 3.07% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.35% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 2% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.92% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 34.02%

How you voted: Palestino vs Medellin

Palestino
50.0%
Draw
40.0%
Independiente Medellin
10.0%
10
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2019 11.30pm
Second Stage
Medellin
1-1
Palestino
(Aggregate 1-1 | Palestino win 4-1 on penalties)
Murillo (45')
Angulo (45')
Jimenez (42')
Jimenez (43'), Gonzalez (45'), Mago (45'), Soto (92')
Feb 6, 2019 11.30pm
Second Stage
Palestino
1-1
Medellin
Fernandez (64')
Fernandez (74'), Guerrero (77')
Cano (60')
Mosquera (27'), Parra (61'), Angulo (70')
rhs 2.0


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