Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 47.36%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 22.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.41%) and 2-1 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood.