Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 34.85%. A draw had a probability of 34% and a win for San Martin de San Juan had a probability of 31.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.13%) and 1-2 (5.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (18.27%), while for a San Martin de San Juan win it was 1-0 (14.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for San Lorenzo in this match.