Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 1, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Victor Agustin Ugarte
Independiente

Nacional
2 - 0
Independiente

Abrego (66'), Gaspar Diellos (83')
Rojas (41'), Baldomar (78'), Mustafa (90+1'), Fernando Pavia Mamani (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Valdez (90+1'), Anyiver Angulo Mosquera (90')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Nacional Potosi and Independiente.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional Potosi

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Universitario de Vinto 0-1 Nacional
Wednesday, March 5 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Independiente

All competitions
Last Game: Independiente 4-0 Godoy Cruz
Saturday, March 29 at 9.45pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional Potosi win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 33.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional Potosi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional Potosi would win this match.

Result
Nacional PotosiDrawIndependiente
39.68% (-4.283 -4.28)27.3% (0.135 0.13)33.02% (4.149 4.15)
Both teams to score 49.58% (1.232 1.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.13% (0.795 0.8)55.87% (-0.795 -0.8)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.02% (0.645 0.65)76.98% (-0.645 -0.64)
Nacional Potosi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.49% (-1.912 -1.91)27.51% (1.912 1.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.98% (-2.534 -2.53)63.02% (2.534 2.53)
Independiente Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.4% (3.415 3.41)31.6% (-3.416 -3.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.99% (3.755 3.76)68.01% (-3.756 -3.76)
Score Analysis
    Nacional Potosi 39.68%
    Independiente 33.02%
    Draw 27.29%
Nacional PotosiDrawIndependiente
1-0 @ 11.22% (-0.99 -0.99)
2-1 @ 8.34% (-0.392 -0.39)
2-0 @ 7.24% (-1.081 -1.08)
3-1 @ 3.59% (-0.377 -0.38)
3-0 @ 3.11% (-0.665 -0.67)
3-2 @ 2.07% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.16% (-0.194 -0.19)
4-0 @ 1.01% (-0.282 -0.28)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 39.68%
1-1 @ 12.92% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 8.7% (-0.27 -0.27)
2-2 @ 4.8% (0.223 0.22)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 27.29%
0-1 @ 10.01% (0.602 0.6)
1-2 @ 7.45% (0.72 0.72)
0-2 @ 5.77% (0.833 0.83)
1-3 @ 2.86% (0.506 0.51)
0-3 @ 2.22% (0.488 0.49)
2-3 @ 1.85% (0.242 0.24)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 33.02%