Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 9, 2024 at 1am UK

Estadio Victor Agustin Ugarte

Nacional
4 - 1
Fortaleza

Callejo (6', 6'), Prost (37', 37'), Guerra (70', 70'), Alvarez (90+3', 90+3')
Hoyos (66'), Hoyos (66'), Guerra (72'), Guerra (72')

FT(HT: 4-2)

Martin Lucero (16', 16')
Pikachu (39'), Pikachu (39')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Nacional Potosi and Fortaleza.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional Potosi

Last Game: Sportivo Trinidense 2-0 Nacional
Wednesday, April 24 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Fortaleza

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Corinthians 0-0 Fortaleza
Sunday, May 5 at 1am in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional Potosi win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional Potosi win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional Potosi would win this match.

Result
Nacional Potosi	Draw	Fortaleza
42.09% ( -1.07)	24.77% ( 0.25)	33.13% ( 0.82)

Both teams to score 57.86% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.78% (

-0.89)

45.22% (

0.89)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.44% (

-0.86)

67.56% (

0.86)

Nacional Potosi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.49% (

-0.86)

21.51% (

0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.43% (

-1.35)

54.56% (

1.35)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.72% (

0.07)

26.28% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.61% (

0.1)

61.39% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Nacional Potosi 42.09%

Fortaleza 33.13%

Draw 24.76%

Nacional Potosi	Draw	Fortaleza
2-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.54% Total : 42.09%	1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.76%	1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.26% Total : 33.13%