Fortaleza
Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 26, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo

Fortaleza
4 - 2
Boca Juniors

Martin Lucero (4', 4', 51', 51'), Pikachu (55', 55', 63', 63')
Augusto (53'), Augusto (53'), Ricardo (77'), Ricardo (77'), Sasha (81'), Sasha (81'), Kayzer (90+6'), Kayzer (90+6')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Merentiel (21', 21'), Zenon (85', 85')
Merentiel (17'), Merentiel (17'), Saracchi (34'), Saracchi (34'), Fernandez (90+6'), Fernandez (90+6')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Fortaleza and Boca Juniors.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fortaleza

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 Cruzeiro
Thursday, April 18 at 12am in Brasileiro

Boca Juniors

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: River Plate 2-3 Boca Juniors
Sunday, April 21 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 56.14%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 18.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Boca Juniors win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.

Result
FortalezaDrawBoca Juniors
56.14% (0.010999999999996 0.01)25.44% (-0.274 -0.27)18.42% (0.261 0.26)
Both teams to score 42.38% (1.067 1.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.14% (1.19 1.19)58.85% (-1.193 -1.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.64% (0.914 0.91)79.36% (-0.91500000000001 -0.92)
Fortaleza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.96% (0.48999999999999 0.49)21.04% (-0.492 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.17% (0.76000000000001 0.76)53.83% (-0.763 -0.76)
Boca Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.67% (1.026 1.03)46.33% (-1.027 -1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.03% (0.779 0.78)81.97% (-0.78100000000001 -0.78)
Score Analysis
    Fortaleza 56.13%
    Boca Juniors 18.42%
    Draw 25.45%
FortalezaDrawBoca Juniors
1-0 @ 15.19% (-0.46 -0.46)
2-0 @ 11.84% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-1 @ 9.11% (0.125 0.13)
3-0 @ 6.15% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 4.74% (0.134 0.13)
4-0 @ 2.4% (0.035 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.85% (0.078 0.08)
3-2 @ 1.82% (0.102 0.1)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 56.13%
1-1 @ 11.69% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.75% (-0.445 -0.45)
2-2 @ 3.51% (0.147 0.15)
Other @ 0.5%
Total : 25.45%
0-1 @ 7.5% (-0.122 -0.12)
1-2 @ 4.5% (0.122 0.12)
0-2 @ 2.89% (0.037 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.15% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 18.42%