Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 55.69%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 16.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.94%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.41%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.