Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 54.11%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 17.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.62%) and 2-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.26%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 19% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for San Lorenzo in this match.