Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 24, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
0 - 2
Sao Paulo

Melgarejo (37'), Melgarejo (37'), Caballero (90+1'), Caballero (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

dos Santos Ferreira (62', 62'), Silva (83', 83')
Antonio (49'), Antonio (49'), Silva (69'), Silva (69')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Club Libertad and Sao Paulo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

Last Game: Libertad 2-0 Talleres
Tuesday, April 8 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Sao Paulo

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos
Sunday, April 20 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 41.1%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Club Libertad had a probability of 28.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.4%) and 1-2 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.34%), while for a Club Libertad win it was 1-0 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	Sao Paulo
28.91% ( -0.24)	29.99% ( -0.08)	41.1% ( 0.32)

Both teams to score 40.93% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.05% (

0.18)

65.95% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.45% (

0.12)

84.55% (

-0.12)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.89% (

-0.1)

40.11% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.25% (

-0.09)

76.75% (

0.09)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.34% (

0.28)

31.66% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.92% (

0.32)

68.08% (

-0.32)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 28.91%

Sao Paulo 41.1%

Draw 29.98%

Club Libertad	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 1.38% Total : 28.91%	1-1 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 12.7% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.44% Total : 29.98%	0-1 @ 14.6% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.4% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.67% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.22% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2% Total : 41.1%