Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Santos had a probability of 20.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.