Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 66.58%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 12.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.03%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.

Result
Sao Paulo	Draw	Alianza Lima
66.58% ( -0.1)	20.47% ( 0.04)	12.95% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 44.6% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.65% (

-0.03)

49.35% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.6% (

-0.03)

71.4% (

0.04)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.06% (

-0.04)

13.94% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.59% (

-0.08)

41.41% (

0.09)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.82% (

0.08)

48.18% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.64% (

0.06)

83.36% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Sao Paulo 66.57%

Alianza Lima 12.95%

Draw 20.47%

Sao Paulo	Draw	Alianza Lima
1-0 @ 13.23% 2-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.56% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.4% Total : 66.57%	1-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.61% Total : 20.47%	0-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 12.95%