Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 52.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 22.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.