Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 6, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Arsenio Erico

Nacional
1 - 1
Alianza Lima

Caballero (8', 8')
Caballero (25'), Caballero (25'), Meza (59'), Meza (59')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Barcos (90+9' pen., 90+9' pen.)
Guerrero (12'), Guerrero (12'), Castillo (75'), Castillo (75'), Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola (90+10'), Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola (90+10')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Club Nacional and Alianza Lima.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Nacional

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Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 2-1 Nacional
Tuesday, May 28 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Alianza Lima

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Last Game: Fluminense 3-2 Alianza Lima
Thursday, May 30 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.48%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.

Result
Club NacionalDrawAlianza Lima
28.56% (0.065000000000001 0.07)27.95% (0.023 0.02)43.5% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Both teams to score 45.97% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.4% (-0.050000000000004 -0.05)59.6% (0.052999999999997 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.07% (-0.038 -0.04)79.94% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.15% (0.024999999999999 0.02)36.86% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.36% (0.023 0.02)73.64% (-0.018999999999991 -0.02)
Alianza Lima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.8% (-0.067000000000007 -0.07)27.21% (0.071999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.38% (-0.090000000000003 -0.09)62.62% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Club Nacional 28.55%
    Alianza Lima 43.49%
    Draw 27.94%
Club NacionalDrawAlianza Lima
1-0 @ 10% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 6.5% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 5% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.16% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 1.66% (0.006 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.41%
Other @ 1.82%
Total : 28.55%
1-1 @ 13.02%
0-0 @ 10.02% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.23% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 27.94%
0-1 @ 13.05%
0-2 @ 8.5% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-2 @ 8.48% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.69% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.68% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.2% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.2% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 43.49%