Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 6, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Nacional1 - 1Alianza Lima
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Club Nacional and Alianza Lima.
Form, Standings, Stats
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.48%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Club Nacional | Draw | Alianza Lima |
28.56% ( 0.07) | 27.95% ( 0.02) | 43.5% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 45.97% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
