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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 4, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Fluminense

Alianza Lima
1 - 1
Fluminense

Steven Serna Jaramillo (35'), Serna (35')
Lenhyn Huaman Asis (22'), Huaman (22'), Pablo Freytes (85'), Pablo Freytes (85')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Marquinhos (72', 72')
Melo (58'), Melo (58')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Alianza Lima and Fluminense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Athletico PR 3-0 Alianza Lima
Tuesday, June 27 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Fluminense

All competitions
Last Game: Fluminense 2-0 LDU Quito
Friday, March 1 at 12.30am in CONMEBOL Recopa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 47.69%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result
Alianza LimaDrawFluminense
47.69% (0.308 0.31)25.88% (-0.472 -0.47)26.43% (0.164 0.16)
Both teams to score 50.45% (1.518 1.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.86% (1.911 1.91)53.13% (-1.911 -1.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.29% (1.597 1.6)74.71% (-1.597 -1.6)
Alianza Lima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.71% (0.95 0.95)22.28% (-0.951 -0.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.26% (1.407 1.41)55.74% (-1.406 -1.41)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.92% (1.174 1.17)35.08% (-1.173 -1.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.17% (1.208 1.21)71.83% (-1.207 -1.21)
Score Analysis
    Alianza Lima 47.69%
    Fluminense 26.43%
    Draw 25.87%
Alianza LimaDrawFluminense
1-0 @ 11.73% (-0.56 -0.56)
2-1 @ 9.23% (0.126 0.13)
2-0 @ 8.81% (-0.162 -0.16)
3-1 @ 4.62% (0.19 0.19)
3-0 @ 4.41% (0.044 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.172 0.17)
4-1 @ 1.73% (0.118 0.12)
4-0 @ 1.66% (0.062 0.06)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.088 0.09)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 47.69%
1-1 @ 12.29% (-0.18 -0.18)
0-0 @ 7.82% (-0.606 -0.61)
2-2 @ 4.83% (0.215 0.22)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 25.87%
0-1 @ 8.19% (-0.358 -0.36)
1-2 @ 6.44% (0.111 0.11)
0-2 @ 4.29% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
1-3 @ 2.25% (0.109 0.11)
2-3 @ 1.69% (0.126 0.13)
0-3 @ 1.5% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 26.43%