CONMEBOL Recopa | Final | 1st Leg

Feb 23, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

LDU Quito
1 - 0
Fluminense

(Fluminense win 2-1 on aggregate)

Arce (90+2', 90+2', 90+2')
Piovi (47'), Piovi (47'), Gabbarini (79'), Arce (90+5'), Arce (90+5'), Arce (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Diniz (17'), Diniz (17'), Martinelli (43'), Martinelli (43'), Guga (74'), Guga (74')

Coverage of the CONMEBOL Recopa Final clash between LDU Quito and Fluminense.

Form, Standings, Stats

LDU Quito

Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 LDU Quito (3-4 pen.)
Saturday, October 28 at 9pm in Copa Sudamericana

Fluminense

All competitions

Last Game: Man City 4-0 Fluminense
Friday, December 22 at 6pm in Club World Cup

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 40%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 1-0 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result
LDU Quito	Draw	Fluminense
34.09% ( -8.01)	25.91% ( 0.36)	40% ( 7.66)

Both teams to score 54.23% (

-0.69)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.95% (

-1.11)

50.04% (

1.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.98% (

-1)

72.02% (

LDU Quito Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.98% (

-4.92)

28.02% (

4.92)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.33% (

-6.72)

63.67% (

6.72)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.34% (

3.92)

24.66% (

-3.92)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.82% (

5.2)

59.18% (

-5.19)

Score Analysis

LDU Quito 34.09%

Fluminense 40%

Draw 25.91%

LDU Quito	Draw	Fluminense
1-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.88) 2-1 @ 7.83% ( -1.05) 2-0 @ 5.59% ( -1.5) 3-1 @ 3.32% ( -1.02) 3-0 @ 2.37% ( -1.09) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.39) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.53) Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.09%	1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.91%	0-1 @ 9.67% ( 1.4) 1-2 @ 8.62% ( 1.03) 0-2 @ 6.77% ( 1.59) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.85) 0-3 @ 3.16% ( 1) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.24) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.42) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.43) Other @ 2.69% Total : 40%