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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 10, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Cerro Porteno
1 - 0
Alianza Lima

Carrizo (90+6')
Viera (16'), Morel (36'), Peralta (41'), Brock (44')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Castillo (42'), Cabellos (54'), Zambrano (58'), Rodriguez (90')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Cerro Porteno and Alianza Lima.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerro Porteno

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Last Game: Colo-Colo 1-0 Cerro Porteno
Thursday, April 4 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Alianza Lima

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Last Game: Alianza Lima 1-1 Fluminense
Thursday, April 4 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 50.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 23.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro Porteno in this match.

Result
Cerro PortenoDrawAlianza Lima
50.25% (-4.054 -4.05)25.78% (1.017 1.02)23.97% (3.035 3.04)
Both teams to score 48.49% (0.681 0.68)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.41% (-0.954 -0.95)54.59% (0.951 0.95)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.07% (-0.8 -0.8)75.93% (0.79700000000001 0.8)
Cerro Porteno Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.24% (-2.058 -2.06)21.76% (2.055 2.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.05% (-3.238 -3.24)54.95% (3.235 3.24)
Alianza Lima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.97% (2.434 2.43)38.03% (-2.437 -2.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.21% (2.279 2.28)74.79% (-2.281 -2.28)
Score Analysis
    Cerro Porteno 50.25%
    Alianza Lima 23.97%
    Draw 25.78%
Cerro PortenoDrawAlianza Lima
1-0 @ 12.62% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-0 @ 9.62% (-0.887 -0.89)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.213 -0.21)
3-0 @ 4.89% (-0.803 -0.8)
3-1 @ 4.73% (-0.423 -0.42)
3-2 @ 2.29% (-0.045 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.87% (-0.448 -0.45)
4-1 @ 1.8% (-0.289 -0.29)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 50.25%
1-1 @ 12.2% (0.49 0.49)
0-0 @ 8.28% (0.302 0.3)
2-2 @ 4.5% (0.193 0.19)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 25.78%
0-1 @ 8% (0.787 0.79)
1-2 @ 5.9% (0.598 0.6)
0-2 @ 3.87% (0.605 0.61)
1-3 @ 1.9% (0.302 0.3)
2-3 @ 1.45% (0.152 0.15)
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.263 0.26)
Other @ 1.6%
Total : 23.97%

How you voted: Cerro Porteno vs Alianza Lima

Cerro Porteno
33.3%
Draw
33.3%
Alianza Lima
33.3%
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