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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 4, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Colo-Colo
1 - 0
Cerro Porteno

Cepeda (90+4', 90+4')
Vidal (46'), Vidal (46'), Gil (90+7'), Gil (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Baez (67')
Jose Peralta Ramirez (21'), Peralta (21'), Gimenez (38'), Gimenez (38'), Arzamendia (90+2'), Morel (90+7'), Arzamendia (90+2'), Morel (90+7')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Colo-Colo and Cerro Porteno.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colo-Colo

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Last Game: Colo-Colo 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense
Thursday, March 14 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Cerro Porteno

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Last Game: Barcelona 2-2 Cerro Porteno
Friday, June 30 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colo-Colo win with a probability of 45.39%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colo-Colo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Colo-Colo in this match.

Result
Colo-ColoDrawCerro Porteno
45.39% (0.54499999999999 0.54)25.93% (-0.167 -0.17)28.68% (-0.383 -0.38)
Both teams to score 51.9% (0.275 0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.97% (0.467 0.47)52.02% (-0.473 -0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.24% (0.402 0.4)73.75% (-0.407 -0.41)
Colo-Colo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.13% (0.455 0.45)22.87% (-0.461 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.39% (0.671 0.67)56.6% (-0.677 -0.68)
Cerro Porteno Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.28% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)32.71% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.73% (-0.047999999999998 -0.05)69.27% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Colo-Colo 45.38%
    Cerro Porteno 28.68%
    Draw 25.93%
Colo-ColoDrawCerro Porteno
1-0 @ 11.03% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-1 @ 9.1% (0.067 0.07)
2-0 @ 8.14% (0.069000000000001 0.07)
3-1 @ 4.48% (0.093 0.09)
3-0 @ 4.01% (0.088 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.5% (0.049 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.65% (0.056 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.48% (0.051 0.05)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 45.38%
1-1 @ 12.33% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.48% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-2 @ 5.08% (0.032 0.03)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.93%
0-1 @ 8.36% (-0.168 -0.17)
1-2 @ 6.89% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.67% (-0.098 -0.1)
1-3 @ 2.57% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.89% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.74% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 28.68%