Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Independiente Rivadavia had a probability of 14.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.67%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.67%), while for a Independiente Rivadavia win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.