Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg

Feb 19, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza Lima
1 - 0
Boca Juniors

Ceppelini (4', 4')
Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola (1'), Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola (1'), Trauco (17'), Trauco (17'), Enrique (48'), Enrique (48'), Barcos (85'), Barcos (85'), Zambrano (90+3'), Zambrano (90+3')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Alarcon (32'), Alarcon (32'), Merentiel (34'), Merentiel (34'), Battaglia (75'), Battaglia (75')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Alianza Lima and Boca Juniors.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

Last Game: Alianza Lima 3-1 Nacional
Thursday, February 13 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Boca Juniors

All competitions

Last Game: Banfield 0-1 Boca Juniors
Friday, February 14 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 48.81%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 22.85%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Boca Juniors win it was 0-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alianza Lima in this match.

Result
Alianza Lima	Draw	Boca Juniors
48.81% ( -0.01)	28.34% ( 0)	22.85% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 40.79% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.02%

63.97% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.83%

83.16% (

-0)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.45% (

-0)

26.55% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.24% (

-0)

61.76% (

Boca Juniors Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.53% (

0.01)

44.46% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.5% (

0.01)

80.5% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Alianza Lima 48.8%

Boca Juniors 22.85%

Draw 28.33%

Alianza Lima	Draw	Boca Juniors
1-0 @ 15.65% 2-0 @ 10.38% 2-1 @ 8.41% 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.72% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.51% 4-1 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.79% Total : 48.8%	1-1 @ 12.68% 0-0 @ 11.8% 2-2 @ 3.41% ( 0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 28.33%	0-1 @ 9.57% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.14% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.88% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.39% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.05% 2-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.91% Total : 22.85%