Copa Libertadores | First Round | 2nd Leg

Feb 13, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza Lima
3 - 1
Nacional

Quevedo (11', 11', 55', 55'), Barcos (50', 50')
Lagos (86'), Lagos (86'), Guerrero (87'), Guerrero (87')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Gaona Lugo (15', 15')
Meza (69'), Meza (69'), Arrua (84'), Arrua (84'), Kevin Benitez Ibarra (89'), Kevin Benitez Ibarra (89')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Alianza Lima and Club Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Alianza Lima
Thursday, February 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Club Nacional

Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Alianza Lima
Thursday, February 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 67.12%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Club Nacional had a probability of 11.27%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.98%) and 3-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Club Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alianza Lima would win this match.

Result
Alianza Lima	Draw	Club Nacional
67.12% ( -0.14)	21.61% ( 0.07)	11.27% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 36.91% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.86% (

-0.13)

57.14% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.99% (

-0.11)

78.01% (

0.1)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.66% (

-0.09)

16.34% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.06% (

-0.17)

45.94% (

0.16)

Club Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.12% (

0.03)

55.88% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.6% (

0.01)

88.4% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Alianza Lima 67.12%

Club Nacional 11.27%

Draw 21.61%

Alianza Lima	Draw	Club Nacional
1-0 @ 16.54% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 14.98% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 9.05% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.07% Total : 67.12%	1-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.54% ( 0) Other @ 0.32% Total : 21.61%	0-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 11.27%