Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 2, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Club Libertad

Alianza Lima
0 - 1
Libertad


Enrique (17'), Enrique (17'), Garces (68'), Garces (68'), Quevedo (78'), Quevedo (78'), Zambrano (81'), Zambrano (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Aguilar (52', 52')
Melgarejo (42'), Melgarejo (42'), Gimenez (86'), Gimenez (86')
Martinez (68'), Martinez (68')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Alianza Lima and Club Libertad.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

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Last Game: Alianza Lima 1-1 Deportes Iquique
Tuesday, March 11 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
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Club Libertad

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Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-1 Libertad
Friday, September 27 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 51.65%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Club Libertad had a probability of 21.05%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Club Libertad win it was 0-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.

Result
Alianza LimaDrawClub Libertad
51.65% (0.085000000000001 0.09)27.3% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)21.05% (-0.041 -0.04)
Both teams to score 41.37% (0.050000000000004 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.82% (0.093000000000004 0.09)62.18% (-0.092000000000006 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.13% (0.067 0.07)81.87% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Alianza Lima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.62% (0.079999999999998 0.08)24.38% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.2% (0.113 0.11)58.79% (-0.112 -0.11)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.71% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)45.29% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.83% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)81.16% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Alianza Lima 51.64%
    Club Libertad 21.05%
    Draw 27.29%
Alianza LimaDrawClub Libertad
1-0 @ 15.58% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 10.99% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.71% (0.012 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.17% (0.019 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.1% (0.015 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.83% (0.01 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.62% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.45% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 51.64%
1-1 @ 12.34% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 11.04% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 3.45% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 27.29%
0-1 @ 8.75% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-2 @ 4.89% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.46% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.29%
0-3 @ 0.92% (-0.002 -0)
2-3 @ 0.91% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 21.05%

Head to Head
May 24, 2023 3am
Group Stage
Alianza Lima
1-2
Libertad
Vilchez (90+3')
Ballon (6'), Reyna (61')
Garcia (45+2' og.), Melgarejo (55')
Oviedo (11'), Barboza (24'), Sanabria (60'), Silva (90+7'), Gimenez (90+5')
Apr 21, 2023 3am
Group Stage
Libertad
1-2
Alianza Lima