Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 60.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Deportes Iquique had a probability of 17.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.87%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Deportes Iquique win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.