Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 2nd Leg

Mar 11, 2025 at 10pm UK

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza Lima
1 - 1
Deportes Iquique

Quevedo (42')
Quevedo (43'), Enrique (76'), Zambrano (90+14'), Guerrero (90+14'), Garces (90+14')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Davila (90')
Javier Blazquez Lavin (41'), Soto (45+8'), Alejandro Gonzalez Ramirez (49'), Rodriguez (65'), Patricio Pino Briceno (90+14'), Ferreyra (90+9')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Alianza Lima and Deportes Iquique.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

Last Game: Deportes Iquique 1-2 Alianza Lima
Tuesday, March 4 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Deportes Iquique

Last Game: Deportes Iquique 1-2 Alianza Lima
Tuesday, March 4 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 60.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Deportes Iquique had a probability of 17.66%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.87%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Deportes Iquique win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.

Result
Alianza Lima	Draw	Deportes Iquique
60.3% ( 0.29)	22.05% ( -0.3)	17.66% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 50.62% (

0.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.89% (

1.29)

47.11% (

-1.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.65% (

1.19)

69.35% (

-1.19)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.81% (

0.53)

15.19% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.19% (

0.99)

43.82% (

-0.99)

Deportes Iquique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.69% (

0.79)

40.32% (

-0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.06% (

0.71)

76.94% (

-0.71)

Score Analysis

Alianza Lima 60.3%

Deportes Iquique 17.66%

Draw 22.04%

Alianza Lima	Draw	Deportes Iquique
1-0 @ 11.54% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 10.87% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.36% Total : 60.3%	1-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.04%	0-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.06) Other @ 2% Total : 17.66%