Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Iquique win with a probability of 37.1%. A win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Iquique win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Alianza Lima win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.