Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 52.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Cruzeiro win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.