Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Union had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.46%) and 1-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Union win was 1-0 (12.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.

Result
Union	Draw	Cruzeiro
32.24% ( 0.08)	30.1% ( 0)	37.65% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 41.62% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.4% (

-0.01)

65.6% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.69% (

-0)

84.3%

Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.68% (

0.06)

37.31% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.9% (

0.06)

74.1% (

-0.06)

Cruzeiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.4% (

-0.06)

33.6% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.75% (

-0.06)

70.24% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Union 32.23%

Cruzeiro 37.65%

Draw 30.1%

Union	Draw	Cruzeiro
1-0 @ 12.35% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.19% ( 0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 32.23%	1-1 @ 13.48% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.53% 2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0) Other @ 0.46% Total : 30.1%	0-1 @ 13.67% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.46% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 2.47% Total : 37.65%