Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 35.79%. A win for Independiente Rivadavia had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 31.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.22%) and 1-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Independiente Rivadavia win was 1-0 (13.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (15.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.