Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 63.76%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Mushuc Runa had a probability of 15.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Mushuc Runa win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.