Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 6, 2025 at 2am UK
Estadio Olimpico de Riobamba

Mushuc Runa
2 - 1
Orense

Bentaberry (17', 17', 17'), Sinisterra (56', 56', 56')
Alonso (37'), Gracia (37'), Alonso (37'), Gracia (37'), Alonso (37'), Gracia (37')
FT(HT: 3-3)
Achilier (39', 39', 39')
Steeven Quinones Mendoza (16'), Steeven Quinones Mendoza (16'), Steeven Quinones Mendoza (16'), Ronaldo Vasquez Cabrera (28'), Ronaldo Vasquez Cabrera (28'), Ronaldo Vasquez Cabrera (28'), Romero (90+4'), Romero (90+4'), Romero (90+4')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Mushuc Runa and Orense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mushuc Runa

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Last Game: LDU Quito 1-1 Mushuc Runa
Thursday, March 17 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Orense

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mushuc Runa win with a probability of 57.66%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Orense had a probability of 17.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mushuc Runa win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.34%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Orense win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mushuc Runa would win this match.

Result
Mushuc RunaDrawOrense
57.66% (0.825 0.83)25.11% (-0.35 -0.35)17.23% (-0.476 -0.48)
Both teams to score 41.33% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.85% (0.561 0.56)59.16% (-0.562 -0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.41% (0.433 0.43)79.59% (-0.434 -0.43)
Mushuc Runa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.46% (0.557 0.56)20.55% (-0.558 -0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.94% (0.876 0.88)53.06% (-0.876 -0.88)
Orense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.02% (-0.268 -0.27)47.98% (0.267 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.79% (-0.197 -0.2)83.22% (0.196 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Mushuc Runa 57.66%
    Orense 17.23%
    Draw 25.1%
Mushuc RunaDrawOrense
1-0 @ 15.6% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-0 @ 12.34% (0.16 0.16)
2-1 @ 9.07% (0.048 0.05)
3-0 @ 6.51% (0.192 0.19)
3-1 @ 4.78% (0.106 0.11)
4-0 @ 2.58% (0.118 0.12)
4-1 @ 1.89% (0.073 0.07)
3-2 @ 1.76% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 57.66%
1-1 @ 11.45% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 9.86% (-0.202 -0.2)
2-2 @ 3.33% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 25.1%
0-1 @ 7.24% (-0.211 -0.21)
1-2 @ 4.21% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.66% (-0.099 -0.1)
1-3 @ 1.03% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 17.23%

Form Guide
Sorry, no data available for Mushuc Runa