Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 4, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio Municipal La Cocha

Mushuc Runa
3 - 2
Palestino

Haquin (41', 41'), Sinisterra (75', 75'), Alonso (82', 82')
Alfredo Orejuela Quinonez (26'), Alfredo Orejuela Quinonez (26'), Nicolas Davila Alarcon (60'), Nicolas Davila Alarcon (60'), Fabian Quintero Loor (73'), Fabian Quintero Loor (73')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Marabel (71', 71'), Carrasco (90+3', 90+3')
Meza (38'), Meza (38'), Ceza (90+1'), Ceza (90+1')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Mushuc Runa and Palestino.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mushuc Runa

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Mushuc Runa 2-1 Orense
Thursday, March 6 at 2am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Palestino

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Catolica 1-1 Palestino (4-5 pen.)
Wednesday, March 5 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mushuc Runa win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for Palestino had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mushuc Runa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Palestino win was 0-1 (9.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mushuc Runa would win this match.

Result
Mushuc RunaDrawPalestino
41.38% (-1.758 -1.76)26.36% (-0.106 -0.11)32.25% (1.863 1.86)
Both teams to score 52.25% (1.082 1.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.64% (1.049 1.05)52.36% (-1.048 -1.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.95% (0.892 0.89)74.05% (-0.893 -0.89)
Mushuc Runa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.02% (-0.426 -0.43)24.98% (0.425 0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.37% (-0.594 -0.59)59.63% (0.594 0.59)
Palestino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.65% (1.828 1.83)30.35% (-1.828 -1.83)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.46% (2.126 2.13)66.53% (-2.127 -2.13)
Score Analysis
    Mushuc Runa 41.38%
    Palestino 32.25%
    Draw 26.36%
Mushuc RunaDrawPalestino
1-0 @ 10.51% (-0.58 -0.58)
2-1 @ 8.7% (-0.137 -0.14)
2-0 @ 7.29% (-0.497 -0.5)
3-1 @ 4.02% (-0.114 -0.11)
3-0 @ 3.37% (-0.274 -0.27)
3-2 @ 2.4% (0.053 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.39% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.17% (-0.111 -0.11)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 41.38%
1-1 @ 12.53% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 7.58% (-0.32 -0.32)
2-2 @ 5.19% (0.177 0.18)
3-3 @ 0.95% (0.067 0.07)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.36%
0-1 @ 9.04% (0.081 0.08)
1-2 @ 7.48% (0.343 0.34)
0-2 @ 5.39% (0.31 0.31)
1-3 @ 2.97% (0.276 0.28)
0-3 @ 2.14% (0.223 0.22)
2-3 @ 2.06% (0.168 0.17)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 32.25%