Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 5, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Catolica
1 - 1
Palestino

Zampedri (88', 88')
Bello (2'), Bello (2'), Montes (6'), Montes (6'), Zuqui (9'), Zuqui (9'), Zampedri (27'), Zampedri (27'), Valencia (53'), Valencia (53')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Carrasco (11', 11')
Meza (20'), Meza (20'), Leon (79'), Leon (79')
Fernandez (71'), Fernandez (71')
Palestino win 5-4 on penalties
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Universidad Catolica and Palestino.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: Catolica 0-2 Coquimbo
Tuesday, March 5 at 10pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Palestino

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Last Game: Medellin 4-0 Palestino
Thursday, August 22 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Palestino had a probability of 31% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Palestino win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawPalestino
43.28% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)25.72% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)31% (0.02 0.02)
Both teams to score 53.83% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.9% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)50.1% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.93% (-0.026 -0.03)72.06% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.96% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)23.04% (0.026 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.14% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)56.86% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Palestino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.94%30.06% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.81%66.18% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 43.27%
    Palestino 31%
    Draw 25.71%
Universidad CatolicaDrawPalestino
1-0 @ 10.16%
2-1 @ 8.97% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
2-0 @ 7.46% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 4.39% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.65% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.61% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.34% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 43.27%
1-1 @ 12.21%
0-0 @ 6.92% (0.008 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.39% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.71%
0-1 @ 8.32% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 5% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.01% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 31%